Florida is experiencing one of the worst droughts on record. It won't come as a surprise that a lack of water leads to many problems with fish and fisheries, but there is a flash of a silver to be expected at the end of your line once rainfall refreshes our water ways.

As of December 9, 2000, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (www.drought.noaa.gov) shows peninsular Florida to still be experiencing drought conditions with little expectation of relief. The Palmer Index is used to measure drought with 0 being normal and -4 being an extreme drought. The area around Orlando is now at or below -4, the area immediately south of there is between -3 and -4, and the extreme south and northeast portions of the state are between -2 and -3. Only the panhandle is at a near normal level of 0 to -1. Nearly 60% of the state's 42 measured streamflow levels were below the 10th percentile in early December, including 26% at record low flows, according to the US Geological Survey. Orlando and its environs (year-to-date precipitation of 28.79", is 62% of normal, 17.55" deficit) is now listed as being in an "exceptional drought."

The Florida Climate Center (www.coaps.fsu.edu/climate_center) and National Climate Prediction Center (www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov) both predict that rains will be below normal from January through March 2001 in Florida. It is not until December 2001 that their predictive models anticipate above average rainfalls.

One of the reasons for the aquatic crisis is the cycle of El Nino and La Nina events. These oceanographic events originate in the Pacific Ocean and have tremendous impact on the global climate. El Nino's (little boy) when they occur off of Peru cause an upwelling of warm water and tend to lead to heavy rains in Florida the following year. La Nina's (little girl) take place when cold water currents affect the Peruvian coast line and create drought conditions in Florida. The 1997-98 El Nino was exceptionally strong, and was followed by a strong La Nina, which is one of the root causes of our current drought.

Florida's population growth (592 per day are added to our 15 million residents) is another factor–every citizen requires 554 gallons of water daily (includes personal use, irrigation and power generation). In addition, most of Florida's population is located in coastal areas or adjacent to freshwater bodies. During rainy seasons they demand flood protection, preventing excess water from being stored, and during droughts they insist on water extraction from our aquifers.

One positive result of the drought of 2000 is the Legislature mandated examination of alternate or expanded sources of water, from desalination plants, conservation/reuse programs, or river withdrawal. The latter is a major concern because minimum-flow requirements for sustaining healthy fish and wildlife populations are not fully understood. Until those levels can be established, removing more water could lead to devastating consequences for fish and aquatic wildlife. Moreover, estuarine fisheries can be damaged by too much or too little freshwater being discharged into them, especially at the wrong time. A thorough understanding of these interactions is essential to sustain our aquatic resource, provide flood protection and ensure adequate water for drinking, irrigation and power generation. If the scientists work together, pool their knowledge and have the financial resources and time to create an effective strategy to plan for Florida's water resource needs, the drought of 2000 will ultimately have a beneficial effect on our fisheries.

In spite of the fact that freshwater fishing access is unusually poor right now, due to low water levels, there are other benefits that will accrue to the fisheries as a result of the drought. Florida's aquatic habitats and fisheries evolved under a cycle of flood and drought. Flood waters flushed excess nutrients from the rivers and lakes, and droughts allow the muck on the bottom of lakes to dry and consolidate. When lakes reflood healthy diverse aquatic plant communities thrive and provide ideal habitat for fish. At such times, bumper year classes of fish are produced providing excellent catch rates of bream two to three years after reflooding. Harvestable-sized bass normally fill the creel within about three to four years. Beginning about eight years after a lake refloods the lake may acquire a trophy reputation–provided anglers abide by management regulations controlling the size and number of fish that can be harvested. The natural drought-flood phenomenon is the basis for the drawdown technique used by Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation biologists to help restore lakes where water structures hold water at unusually high levels most years. So let's hope the natural drawdowns of 2000 provide similar benefits, once the rains begin again. A Christmas visit by the "little boy" off of Peru this year would certainly be a welcome event by Floridians.